11月28日上午，在2021亚洲青年领袖论坛“粤港澳大湾区合作发展”主题论坛平行对话中，广东外语外贸大学粤港澳大湾区研究院院长申明浩就“粤港澳大湾区正迎来巨大的机遇风口”的话题发表了自己的观点。

全文如下：

各位嘉宾下面我分享一些大湾区的内容：
我们实际上是教育和科研机构，虽然我不一定很年轻，但是我们大学培养的学生都很年轻，每年大概毕业五六千个学生，80%以上是在大湾区就业的，而且我们的就业层次也不错， 国家公布的各个榜单上，我们的学生就业的竞争力和薪酬水平在全国大概排十几二十位左右,在广东省是数一数二的。所以，我们用我们的专业也培养了一批青年学生。

大湾区研究院是致力于研究大湾区的产业、贸易等一些问题。我们也做得比较早，2016年的时候，已经在做大湾区的课题了，当时为深圳做了一些事情。我们是最早成立的湾区研究机构，已经进入到中国CTTI智库Top的智库名单。
我们做了几件事，一个是人才库，还有信息资料库，另外还有三个平台。一是政策咨询平台，我们给各级政府做了一些政策咨询。同时还有个国际交流平台，还有一个培训和政策推广的平台。这些年做了100多场政策解读报告会，包括深圳四五个区，广州两三个区的几套班子都做过解读，也做过100多场媒体专访、100多场论坛。所以我们大致上做了一些政策推广和一些湾区认知上的普及工作。

对于粤港澳大湾区来说，南沙过去是几何中心，现在正在向交通中心和功能中心转变。大湾区实际上在全球意义上来讲，是一个国际湾区的中国模式，这个湾区有很多独特性，这是南沙可以抓住的机遇。比如说湾区制度多元，有港澳的因素，所以在制度创新方面肯定是一个高地。而且，粤港澳大湾区是全世界都市圈密度最大的湾区，在100公里的半径范围内集聚了广州、深圳、香港，3个超2万亿级城市的都市圈。2万亿级城市相当于什么呢？是比新西兰国家的GDP总量还大的城市集聚。在全世界范围内，如果有2个这样的城市集聚，一般相邻在500公里以上，所以我们的都市圈密度是非常大的。

而且我们的产业多元化非常高。我们都知道中国是联合国41个工业大类、207个工业中类和666个工业小类唯一齐全的国家，大湾区实际上除了煤炭产业不做，拥有40个工业大类，而广州实际上是所有一线城市当中最多的，有35个工业大类，所以我们出口的商品品种也特别多。广东省主要以珠三角为主，出口的商品种类有5898种，覆盖了全中国8557种的70%，所以我们贸易额非常巨大。珠三角的贸易额从2019年来算，大概1.1万亿美元的贸易额，再加上香港有1.2万亿美元的贸易额，因为香港有7000亿美元是从内地转口过去的。所以我们怎么算都能够占据中国大概1/3甚至以上的份额，在全世界贸易额最多。我们的专利数量最近也在蓬勃发展。专利数量大湾区已经达到33万件，已经是所有湾区当中最大的。据世界知识产权组织排行，世界上最重要的几个具有创新集聚的区域，广州、香港、深圳三个地方作为一个集群已经连续多年排在世界第二位，第一位是东京横滨。当然，旧金山湾区因为规模太小，它只有700万人口，所以规模指数下降，稍微靠后一点。所以这样来看的话，粤港澳大湾区给我们带来了很多的机遇，我们是一个跨境的市场，未来跨境市场的一体化会催生很多的机会。

广深港高铁开通了，现在由于疫情受了点影响。实际上广深港高铁意义非常重大，从庆盛站到香港西九龙半个小时，从福田中心区到香港西九龙15分钟，这等于是同城化了。3个GDP达2万亿级的城市同城化就等于是6万亿级以上的体量，应该讲是将近7万亿的体量，这是全世界绝无仅有的机会。

过去我给香港的青年培训了上千人，他们都讲创业的市场空间狭小，我们只有750万人口、1110平方公里，但是如果我们是跨境市场的话，那么，这就是一个巨大的市场份额，所以我们会看到世界上的湾区很多都是在青年的推动下发展起来的。像二百五十年前，以40岁左右的瓦特为代表的一批青年人推动了第一次工业革命；一百四十年前，是以30多岁的爱迪生为代表的一批人推动了电器革命；最近是四十五年前，以20多岁的乔布斯和比尔·盖茨为代表的推动了信息革命。
实际上我们会看到有一大群青年人在湾区发展当中起到了重要的作用，现在粤港澳大湾区青年人的比重是非常高的，粤港澳大湾区是全中国主要城市群当中唯一一个老龄化问题比较小的。这对我们来讲，是一个非常大的机遇，未来的机会应当是非常多的。

回到发言的主题，青年的“担当、责任、作为”。从未来上来讲，担当应该是解决我们现在的一些问题。就我们研究机构来说，我们解决的问题是我们去找到问题，要资政建言，给政府提出一些政策建议。近几年，关于湾区的“一带一路”已经提了几百份的政策建议，获得了省部长以上的批示，有10份是获得了党和国家最高领导人的肯定和批示，这是我们的担当。我想青年的担当是想解决你所在的行业或者是某个领域的一些问题，我想先要找到问题再有未来的一些作为。
我想，简单来说有两个问题。

第一个问题，就是现在面临的产业链、供应链断链的问题，包括技术“卡脖子”，本质上是一个专利技术风险的问题。因为最近这些年的发展中，大家都越来越看到并关注这个问题，尤其是专利技术这方面的风险。实际上我们知道，前几次工业革命是西方兴起的，所以专利技术在他们手中掌握的比较多。我们都知道中国是贸易第一大顺差国，实际上是货物贸易第一大顺差国，我们的服务贸易实际上是第一大逆差国。服务贸易的逆差来自哪里？有三块可能比较大的：第一块是境外消费，当然这是好事，我们出境游、在外购物。第二块是国际航运，国际航运是什么？因为我们的产能巨大，但运力不足，中国生产了全世界48%的生铁、49%的粗钢、70%的电解铝、70%的电脑、77%的手机，这么大的产能，国际航运没有那么多船，这一块是逆差。还有一块很重要的就是专利授权许可费是我们的逆差项。仅仅一个高通在中国一年拿到的专利授权许可费就有260亿，当然只占手机的3.25%，这还是他收得不够狠。如果是中国的企业做了这块，可能就不一样了。当然这是温水煮青蛙的形式，收得不够狠，我们也不做上游，所以这是一个很大的问题。

另外一个是产业链和创新链的融合还不够，我们知道，有产业链的问题，也有创新链的问题。我们也有很多的高校，也有科研机构，但是其中的融合是很不足的。全中国现在有1.3亿家上市主体，有3800万家企业，规上工业38万家，大湾区可能就有500多万家企业，但是只有不到5万家的国家高新技术企业，实际上不到1%。有大量企业实际上并没有意识到科技创新是他的竞争力，这也是一个问题。

那么现在粤港澳大湾区怎么样去发挥自己的优势，去解决这些问题？港澳的优势加上珠三角的优势，实际上是可以发挥很大作用的。第一个，我们可以利用双方的优势，比方港澳有一些科技资源创新的优势和创意的优势；珠三角有大量的产能优势和人才供给优势，尤其是有超大的市场规模优势。实际上大湾区的社会商品零售总额达到3.6万亿，大致等于北京+上海+天津+重庆这么大的体量，完全可以成为亚太地区的一个重要的消费中心。我们也有完整的产业链体系，这时，如果港澳和内地市场一体化，我想这个优势可以充分发挥。

另外，我想在产业链上中下游的融合打通方面应当也要发挥一定的优势。因为我们过去都是主要做产业链下游，珠三角地区实际上是全球产业链的下游，这里最集中。我们跟别人发生关系，主要是在下游发生关系，最终产品也是从我们这边出去的，但是上游做得少，华为实际上做了上游，所以美国很紧张。实际上我们需要更多的企业做上游，而上游这部分的企业现在也越来越多了，像我们很多具有原创idea的，研发包括生产都在这里。因为全世界可能只有在这里有这样的优势。比如大疆无人机就是这样的例子，香港科大李泽湘教授带的研究生汪滔，一个实验室技术在深圳落地、研发、生产，最后出口到欧美，占据80%的市场份额。曾经梁振英也问过汪滔，说：“你回到香港，什么条件都满足，行不行？”汪滔说：“这个不可能的。为什么？因为我就是做idea的，我做创意的，我在网上发包出一个商品需求，可能有几百个零部件，只有在深圳以及周边大湾区这个地方，所有的供应商都能迅速地供应过来，其他地方做不到。” 这就是我们的产业链的配套能力已经具备了。同时我们上中下游，上游部分太少，实际上现在又面临一个巨大的机遇期，因为我们现在不管是新能源也好，新材料也好，给了很多企业一个换道超车的机会，包括我们的新能源汽车。我们知道，按照传统汽车，欧、美、日的优势比较大，我们这方面确实比人家要落后一些，但是新能源汽车大家在同一起跑线，就属于同一阶段了，这是换道超车的很大机会。所以现在越来越多企业可以从上游切入，这也是一个非常好的机会。

另外，在互联网领域，中国是不太落后的，甚至说，消费互联网我们是领先的，当然我们的工业互联网是相对落后的。我们的工业互联网的覆盖率实际上只有30%，但是欧美发达国家是占60%，这是我们巨大的市场空间。未来的互联网，第一代互联网（PC互联网）和第二代移动互联网，这在将来可能都是过去时了。未来是以5G技术引领的5G云计算，包括VR、AR引领的未来互联网，第三代互联网是万物互联的互联网，或者定义为工业互联网、全息互联网，因而数字经济也是一个未来巨大的机会。而这个机会实际上使得过去传统的平面媒体互联网只有1%的胜出机会，因为赛道比较单一，现在就有多维的、成千上万个1%的机会出现，我想这也是未来的一个巨大的机会，事实上已经出现了很多这样的企业。我想，如果把这几个要素融合在一起，未来大湾区对港澳青年和内地青年都是一个巨大的机遇。


On 28 November, Shen Minghao, Director of Institute of Studies for the Greater Bay Area, Guangdong University of Foreign Studies, delivered a keynote speech at the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Cooperation and Development Forum of the Asia Youth Leaders Forum 2021.

The full speech is as below.

We are an educational and scientific research institute. I'm not very young, but the students I train in the university are very young. 5,000 to 6,000 students graduate every year, and over 80% of them work in the Greater Bay Area. Moreover, theiremployment is good. According to differentnational lists, the competitiveness and salary levels of our students are ranked in the top ten or twenty in the country, and one of the best in Guangdong Province. So, we have trained many young studentsby using our specialties.

The Institute of Studies for the Greater Bay Area is committed to the research on industries and trade in the Greater Bay Area. We also did it early, and inthe year of 2016, we were already working on thesubject of the Greater Bay Area. Back then, we did something for Shenzhen. Our institute was one of the earliest Greater-Bay-Area-focused research institutions and entered the top list of Chinese Think Tank Index (CTTI).
We have done a few things. We have established a talent database, an information database, and three platforms, including a policy consulting platform for governments at all levels, an international exchange platform, and a training and policy promotion platform. Over these years, we've organized more than 100 policy interpretation meetings for the leadership in four or five districts of Shenzhen and two or three districts of Guangzhou, more than 100 media interviews, and more than 100 forums. So generally speaking, whatwe've done is policy promotion and raising awareness of the Greater Bay Area.

In the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, Nansha was a geometric center and is transforming into a transportation and functional center. The Greater Bay Area actually adopts a Chinese model of an international bay area. The Greater Bay Area has many unique features whichcould bring many opportunities to Nansha. For example, there are diverse systems in the Greater Bay Area with Hong Kong and Macaocharacteristics, so there must be a good opportunity in system innovation. Moreover, the Greater Bay Area is actually the bay area with the highest density of metropolises in the world. Within 100 km, there are Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong, the three metropolises whose GDP surpass RMB 2 trillion. What does that mean? It means there is a city cluster whose GDP is larger than New Zealand's. Around the world, such city clusters are generally 500 km apart, so the density of such clusters is very high.

Moreover, there is a high level of industrial diversification. We all know China is the world's only country with all the 41 industrial divisions, 207 groups, and 666 classes as specified by the United Nations. The Greater Bay Area deals with 40 industrial divisions except for the coal industry. In fact, Guangzhou has 35 industrial divisions, which ranks first among all first-tier cities. So, the city exports many varieties of products. Guangdong Province, mainly the Pearl River Delta, exports 5,898 kinds of products, covering 70% of China's total number of varieties, which is 8,557, so the volume of trade is large. In 2019, the volume of trade in the Pearl River Delta was around USD 1.1 trillion. The volume of trade in Hong Kong was USD 1.2 trillion, and USD 700 billion of products from the mainland were exported through entrepot trade in Hong Kong. So, no matter how we calculate, the volume of trade in the Greater Bay Area can account for one third of and even above China’s total, which is the largest in the world.

The number of patents has been increasing recently. The number of patents in the Greater Bay Area has reached 330,000, the largest among all bay areas. According to the World Intellectual Property Organization’s ranking, among the most important innovation clusters in the world, the cluster made up of Guangzhou, Hong Kong, and Shenzhen has been ranked second for several consecutive years, following the Tokyo-Yokohama metropolitan area. The San Francisco Bay Area is a small area with a population of only seven million, so its scale index has reduced, and it lags behind. So, we can see that the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Bay Area has actually brought us many opportunities. We have a cross-border market. The integration of this cross-border market will generate many opportunities.

The Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Express Rail Link has opened to traffic, although it is affected by the pandemic. The railway is actually significant. It takes half an hour from Qingsheng Station to Hong Kong West Kowloon Station and 15 minutes from the downtown of Futian District to Hong Kong West Kowloon Station. This is urban integration. Urban integration of these three cities whose GDP have surpassed RMB 2 trillion each means that there is a total volume of over RMB 6 trillion, or even nearly RMB 7 trillion, which is a rare opportunity in the world.

I've trained over 1,000 Hong Kong young people. They all said that there was a small market space for entrepreneurs, as Hong Kong had a population of only 7.5 million and covered an area of 1,110 square kilometers. But if there is a cross-border market, there would be a huge market share. So, we can see that many bay areas in the world developed with efforts from young people. For example, 250 years ago, a group of young people represented by Watt, who was around 40, promoted the Industrial Revolution. 140 years ago, a group of people with Edison who was in his 30s as a representative promoted the electrical revolution. 45 years ago, Jobs and Bill Gates who were in their 20s promoted the information revolution.

Actually, we can see that many young people have played an important role in the development of the Greater Bay Area. In the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, the proportion of young people is very high. The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is the only metropolitan area with minor problems of aging among major city clusters in China. So, this is a big opportunity for us. There will be a lot of opportunities. 

Back to the topic of my speech: youth's responsibility and action. In my opinion, youth's responsibility means to solve some existing problems. As a research institution, to solve problems, we need to identify the problems and give policy suggestions to the government. In recent years, we have made hundreds of policy suggestions on the Belt and Road Initiative in the Greater Bay Area, which have been approved by governors and ministers. And ten suggestions were approved by the top leader of the Party and the State. This is our responsibility. I think it is youth's responsibility to solve some problems in the industry or field theyare in. I think, we need to first identify problems and then do something. Simply speaking, I think there are two problems. 

One problem is the severance of the industrial and supply chains, including technological bottlenecks, which is actually a matter of patented technologies. Over these years' development, people have paidmore and more attention to this problem, especially the risk of patented technologies. We know that the past industrial revolutions emerged in the West, so they have more patented technologies.

We all know that China is the largest trade-surplus country. In fact, it is about the trade in goods. In terms of the trade in services, China is the largest deficit country. Where is the deficit of the trade in services from? There are three major aspects. The first is overseas consumption. This is a good thing. It is about outbound travel and shopping. The second is international shipping. Why is it international shipping? China has large production capacity but doesn’t have enough transport capacity. China produces 48% of the world’s pig iron, 49% of crude steel, 70% of electrolytic aluminum, 70% of computers, and 77% of cellphones, which is great production capacity, but China doesn't have many ships for international shipping. Therefore, it is a deficit country in this aspect. The other important aspect is the deficit from patent licensing fees. Qualcomm alone gets USD 26 billion of patent licensing fees from China per year, accounting for only 3.25% of that in cellphone business. Qualcomm doesn't charge much. If Chinese enterprises engage in this area, things may be different. Of course, it is a form of the boiling frog. Qualcomm doesn't charge much, and we don't engage in the upstream business. This is a big problem.

The other problem is insufficient integration of the industrial chain and the innovation chain. We know that there are problems with the industrial chain and the innovation chain. We have a lot of institutions of higher education and scientific research institutes, but the integration is actually insufficient. In China, there are 130 million market entities, 380 million enterprises, and 380,000 enterprises above designated size. In the Greater Bay Area, there are over five million enterprises, but less than 50,000 national high-tech enterprises, which is less than 1%. Many enterprises actually don't realize technological innovation is their competitiveness. That is a problem. 

How can the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area give play to its strengths to solve those problems? I think the combined advantages of Hong Kong, Macao, and Pearl River Delta can play a great role. 
Firstly, we can make use of both sides' strengths. For example, Hong Kong and Macao has innovative and creative technological resources, and the Pearl River Delta has large production capacity, talent supply, and particularly a super large market. The total volume of retail sales in the Greater Bay Area has reached RMB 3.6 trillion, which is the combined volume of that in Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, and Chongqing, so the Greater Bay Area can become one of the important consumption centers in the Asia-Pacific. Besides, as we have a complete industrial chain system, if Hong Kong and Macao market can be integrated with the mainland market, I believe the advantage can be brought into full play.

Secondly, I think we should promote the integration among the upstream, midstream, and downstream of the industrial chain. In the past, we were mainly engaged in the downstream of the industrial chain. The Pearl River Delta is a place where the downstream of the global industrial chain is most concentrated. We are mainly connected with others in the downstream, and the final products go out from here. But we are seldom engaged in the upstream. Huawei actually engages in the upstream, so the US is very nervous. 

Actually, we need more enterprises to engage in the upstream, and there are more and more upstream enterprises. There are many enterprises of original ideas, R&D, and production here, because only this place may have such strengths in the world. DJI Technology is such an example. Wang Tao, whose postgraduate supervisor is Prof. Li Zexiang of the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, launched a project based on laboratory technology in Shenzhen, and with further R&D, produced and exported products to European and the US, accounting for 80% of the market share. Leung Chun-ying once asked Wang Tao, "If you go back to Hong Kong, all your requirements will be satisfied, will you?" Wang Tao said, "That is impossible. Because I'm engaged in ideas. If I give out a contract for a project, a product may need several hundred parts. Only suppliers in Shenzhen and places around the Greater Bay Area can quickly supply me, and no other place can." It is evident that we have a sophisticated industrial chain.

There are too few upstream enterprises, so there willbe great opportunities in the future. Many enterprises, whether in terms of new energy, new material, or even new energy vehicles, are given an opportunity to overtake others. We know that in thefield of traditional automobiles, Europe, the US, and Japan have great advantages. China indeed lags behind in that aspect. But all countries are on the same starting line in terms of the development of new energy vehicles. All are actually in the same stage, so this is a good opportunity to overtakethem. Now more and more enterprises are starting from the upstream, and that is a very good opportunity.

Thirdly, China's internet doesn't lag behind, or we can say China's consumer internet is leading, but the industrial internet is relatively backward. The coverage of the industrial internet in China is only around 30%, but the rate in developed countries in Europe and the US is around 60%. So, there is a huge market space for us. In the future, the first-generation internet (PC internet) and the second-generation internet (mobile internet) will be obsolete. There will be internet led by 5G technology such as 5G cloud computing, VR, and AR. The third-generation internet might be the internet connecting all things. We can call it industrial internet or holographic internet. We can give it such names. Then digital economy will be a great opportunity. Actually, this opportunity renderstraditional print-media internet only 1% chance of winning. In the past, there were few tracks forcompetition. But now, there are many. A lot of such 1% chances will arise. I think there will be a great opportunity. There actually have been many such enterprises here. I think, if we take full advantage ofthose elements, the Greater Bay Area will be a great opportunity for the youth in both Hong Kong, Macao, and the mainland.